In a shocking blow to the Conservative government, the recent by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough saw both constituencies turning from blue to red, with Labour securing significant victories. These losses mark a major setback for Chancellor Rishi Sunak and his party, as it is the first time a Conservative administration has suffered the most by-election defeats since the Second World War. The results also come as Downing Street gears up for the upcoming general election, adding further pressure to the government’s preparations.
While these wins serve as a blow to the Tories, they provide a glimmer of hope for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Following a challenging week marked by controversy over his party’s green investment plan and an antisemitism crisis, these victories offer some relief. The unexpected wins in Kingswood and Wellingborough demonstrate that the British electorate is yearning for change and are willing to put their trust in a reformed Labour Party to deliver it.
Both by-elections were prompted by scandals and resignations within the Conservative Party. In Wellingborough, Peter Bone was recalled by his constituents amid allegations of bullying and sexually inappropriate behavior, which he vehemently denies. Labour’s Gen Kitchen capitalized on the opportunity and secured a remarkable victory, overturning a majority of over 18,000 votes and achieving a swing of 28.5%, the second highest in history.
In Kingswood, the seat became vacant after Chris Skidmore resigned as an MP, citing his dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak’s green policies. Labour’s Damien Egan seized the moment and turned the tide, overturning a majority of over 11,000 votes. These two losses mark the ninth and tenth by-election defeats for the government since the 2019 general election, making this administration the most vulnerable in recent history.
Adding insult to injury, the Conservative government has now lost a net total of nine seats since the 2019 general election, including the recent defeat in Hartlepool. This surpasses the eight seats lost by Sir John Major’s administration between 1992 and 1997. However, it falls short of the record set by the Labour government between 1966 and 1970, which lost a staggering 15 seats in just four years.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer wasted no time in emphasizing the significance of these wins. He declared that the victories in these traditionally Tory strongholds demonstrate a desire for change and a renewed faith in a reformed Labour Party to deliver that change. Sir Keir promised to tirelessly work in the service of working people and vowed to deliver for them.
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden admitted that the by-election results were “very disappointing” and acknowledged that there was no need to shy away from that fact. He pointed out that the turnout among Tory voters was low and highlighted the less-than-ideal circumstances that contributed to these defeats. While acknowledging the success of Reform UK, which garnered over 10% of the votes in both constituencies, Holden downplayed the party’s threat and emphasized that these votes might have come from various parties, not just the Conservatives.
Political analyst Professor Michael Thrasher shed light on the elusive nature of voting patterns in the UK. Due to the secrecy of ballots, it is challenging to determine if voters have switched allegiances between parties without conducting post-election surveys. However, the strong performance of Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit Party, cannot be ignored. Garnering more than 10% of the votes in both by-elections, Reform UK finished third in both seats, surpassing the Liberal Democrats. With a pledge to run candidates in every seat in Britain, Reform UK poses a potential threat to the Conservatives.
The parties now turn their attention to the upcoming Rochdale by-election, scheduled to take place in two weeks. However, Labour has already abandoned its candidate in the wake of an antisemitism controversy, setting the stage for further upheaval and uncertainty in British politics. As the general election looms closer, both major parties will be under increased pressure to address the concerns and demands of the electorate while navigating the ever-shifting dynamics of the UK political landscape.
Leave a Reply