Recently, Ukrainian forces managed to cross the Dnieper River and establish footholds on the east bank, marking a small but significant breakthrough in their six-month counteroffensive against Russia. This development has sparked hopes that Ukraine could advance southward toward Crimea, potentially breaking the land bridge that connects Russia to the peninsula. With the strategic importance of the Kherson region, located above Russian-annexed Crimea, this offensive operation could create significant challenges for Russian forces. However, while this victory is noteworthy, the road ahead for Ukraine remains challenging.
The left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson is particularly crucial because of its proximity to Crimea. Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko highlighted that Ukrainian forces on the left bank are just 70 kilometers from occupied Crimea. If the offensive operation is successful, it would mean moving behind Russian forces, disrupting their logistics, and advancing west and south towards Crimea. Such a move would create substantial problems for Russia, potentially leading to the liberation of occupied territory.
Russia appeared to be taken aback by the scale of Ukraine’s river crossing. The Russian-installed governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, acknowledged that Ukraine had initially sent more personnel across the Dnieper than they could destroy with firepower. However, Russian forces swiftly retaliated, launching attacks on the troops and heavy equipment that had crossed the river. Intense fighting ensued, with several villages on the east bank, particularly Krynky, becoming the epicenter of the conflict.
Despite Russia’s attempts to counterattack and prevent Ukrainian advances, Ukraine’s military reported that they had pushed Russian forces back between 3 to 8 kilometers from the river. This impeded Russia’s ability to bombard Ukrainian forces on the west bank with mortars. Ukraine also requested operational silence as the front line remained fluid. The British Ministry of Defense noted that the ground fighting on the east bank involved dismounted infantry combat, artillery exchanges, and the effective use of small attack uncrewed aerial vehicles by Ukraine. This type of warfare made it difficult for Russian forces to hold Ukrainian forces west of the river and free up troops for other operations.
Securing a robust beachhead on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River poses a potential threat to the western flank of Russian forces. If Ukraine can sustain an offensive from this position, it could bypass the layered Russian defenses near Zaporizhzhia and force Russian forces in the land bridge to withdraw back into Crimea. This would result in the liberation of a significant portion of occupied territory, marking a substantial breakthrough for Ukrainian forces. However, military analyst Sean Bell warns that the challenging winter weather and a potential shift in Russia’s military focus could still hinder Ukraine’s chances of a vital breakthrough.
While Ukraine’s recent victory is encouraging, the road ahead remains challenging. Russia’s concentration of forces in eastern Ukraine and limited reserves for redeployment in the Kherson region put them on the back foot. However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive still faces numerous obstacles. Western support for continued aid for Ukraine is faltering, and the outcome of their efforts to maintain and advance positions on the east bank is crucial. The international community closely watches as Ukraine attempts to make gains in a counteroffensive that was first launched in June.
Furthermore, the battle for Kherson occurs at a time when Ukraine’s need for support is critical. The lack of progress in the counteroffensive has made Western assistance uncertain. Ukraine’s success in maintaining and advancing positions on the east bank will be essential in garnering international support and aid. The outcome will determine whether Ukraine can maintain momentum and potentially achieve a greater breakthrough in the ongoing conflict.
Ukraine’s recent breakthrough in crossing the Dnieper River and establishing footholds on the east bank opens up new possibilities in the counteroffensive against Russia. While challenges remain and the outcome is uncertain, this small victory carries significant implications. The battle for Kherson is not only a military conflict but also a battle for support from the international community. The world watches as Ukraine attempts to secure its position and advance towards Crimea, potentially weakening Russia’s hold on the region.
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