Shares of Moderna experienced a significant surge of more than 15% on Tuesday, following a favorable upgrade by Oppenheimer. The investment firm has upgraded Moderna’s stock to “outperform,” citing the company’s potential to introduce five new products to the market by 2026. Moderna had a challenging year in 2023, primarily due to the decline in demand for Covid vaccines worldwide, resulting in a staggering 45% decrease in their share price.
Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh predicts a potential low point in Moderna’s Covid vaccine sales in 2024. Singh attributes this decline to factors such as vaccine fatigue. However, he remains optimistic about the future, anticipating a resurgence in sales from 2025 onwards. Singh believes that as education and awareness about Covid increase, demand for the vaccine will rise.
Singh’s analysis highlights Moderna’s pipeline potential and several upcoming product launches within the next 12 to 18 months that could significantly boost sales by 2025. Notably, the company’s experimental vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) aims to protect older adults from this illness, which often results in mild, cold-like symptoms but can be severe in seniors and children. Moderna plans to seek approval for this vaccine from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in April.
Furthermore, Moderna’s experimental flu vaccine is also anticipated to gain approval in either 2024 or 2025. The company reported encouraging results from a late-stage trial, demonstrating a more potent immune response against four strains of the virus compared to current flu vaccines on the market.
Another significant prospect for Moderna is the potential FDA approval of its experimental personalized cancer vaccine. Singh suggests that the company may pursue an accelerated approval pathway, which expedites the approval process for drugs addressing critical medical needs based on specific clinical trial metrics. Currently, Moderna and its partner Merck are conducting studies on this vaccine alongside Merck’s blockbuster therapy Keytruda for the treatment of deadly skin cancer, known as melanoma, and other cancers.
In their recent shareholder letter, Moderna reiterated expectations of sales growth in 2025. The company highlighted the potential approval of their combination shot targeting Covid and the flu, which could be granted as early as 2025. Moderna aims to break even in 2026 after projecting a revenue decline to $4 billion in 2024, followed by a subsequent increase.
Moreover, Moderna intends to launch up to 15 products within the next five years. This ambitious goal was initially outlined during the company’s annual research and development day in September. Moderna’s commitment to diversifying its product line demonstrates a proactive approach to seize new market opportunities beyond the Covid vaccine.
Moderna’s stock surge following Oppenheimer’s upgrade reflects investors’ optimism regarding the company’s future prospects. Despite the challenges faced during 2023, Moderna is poised for a rebound, with potential breakthroughs in RSV, flu vaccines, and personalized cancer treatments. As the biotechnology firm continues to innovate and expand its product offerings, it is well positioned to solidify its market position and generate sustainable growth in the years to come.
Leave a Reply