European heads of state are gathering for a crucial two-day summit with Ukraine at the top of the agenda. However, despite the urgency of the situation, internal divisions threaten to hinder any significant action towards Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s worldwide efforts to seek aid in the fight against Russia’s invasion have highlighted the need for support, yet the conference seems poised for challenging deliberations.
European Council President Charles Michel emphasizes the importance of making critical decisions to protect the interests of the European Union by supporting Ukraine. The proposed allocation of 50 billion euros ($54.43 billion) by the European Commission to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027 is now in jeopardy due to opposition from Hungary. The Hungarian Prime Minister’s personal meeting with Putin in October has raised concerns and is effectively blocking the disbursement. Furthermore, other EU member states, such as Italy, have also voiced reservations about the prospect of enlarging the bloc. These hesitations hinder the possibility of holding official negotiations with Ukraine for the nation’s potential future accession to the EU. However, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, Olga Stefanishyna, views these negotiations as a significant guarantee of Ukraine’s sustainability.
The decreasing levels of assistance from Western countries towards Ukraine are evident. Last week, data from the Kiel Institute revealed that newly committed aid to Ukraine between August and October witnessed a nearly 90% decline compared to the same period in 2022. While a core group of donors, including the U.S., Germany, and Nordic and Eastern European countries, continue to provide financial aid and weaponry, the overall support is waning. The conflict between Hamas and Israel, as well as increasing inflationary pressures, has diverted attention and limited the ability of Western governments to offer additional aid.
One of the critical challenges facing Ukraine is Russia’s military advantage. Even with the decline in support for Putin’s actions in Ukraine among the Russian population, Russia’s military strength poses a significant obstacle. Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe Advisor at consultancy firm Teneo, points out that Russia has the upper hand in terms of military equipment, munitions, and manpower, at least in the first half of 2024. Moscow’s mobilization of its economy for the war has resulted in a rapid increase in military output. Additionally, Russia is procuring supplies from unlikely sources like North Korea and Iran while maintaining military recruitment to compensate for potential manpower losses without triggering public discontent.
Surveys conducted by the Levada Center indicate that a majority of the Russian population still supports Putin’s actions in Ukraine, though this support has gradually declined. A poll released earlier this month revealed that 74% of respondents fully or partially support the war in Ukraine. This finding highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and suggests that the conflict holds a level of popularity within the Russian public.
The European summit aimed at supporting Ukraine faces significant challenges. Internal divisions and hesitations within the EU, coupled with decreasing levels of financial assistance, have placed Ukraine in a precarious position. Meanwhile, Russia’s military advantage and the remaining popularity of Putin’s actions further exacerbate the situation. The international community must grapple with these obstacles to effectively support Ukraine and counter the ongoing conflict with Russia.
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